Seminar “An Epidemic Model with Time Delays Determined by the Infectivity and Disease Durations”

Seminar “An Epidemic Model with Time Delays Determined by the Infectivity and Disease Durations”

The event passed
13 Apr
Contact person
Mozokhina Anastasiia
About the event

13 April at 16.30 (Moscow time)

Speaker: Masoud Saade, A first-year graduate student, RUDN university.

Topic: An Epidemic Model with Time Delays Determined by the Infectivity and Disease Durations

Annotation. Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases plays an essential role in the understanding of the dynamics of epidemic progression, in prediction of future epidemic outbreaks and elaboration of the appropriate control strategies. In this talk, we start by proposing an epidemiological model with distributed recovery and death rates. It represents an integro-differential system of equations for susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered and dead classes. Then we show that this model can be reduced to the conventional ODE model under the assumption that recovery and death rates are uniformly distributed in time during disease duration.

After that, we investigate another limiting case, where recovery and death rates are given by the delta-function, which leads to a new point-wise delay model with two time delays corresponding to the infectivity period and disease duration. Existence and positiveness of solutions for the distributed delay model and point-wise delay model are proved.

We also calculate some characteristics of epidemic progression in the delay model. Next, we investigate the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 infection through our model, and compare it with the conventional ODE model. Finally, we present conclusions and further perspectives.


Related eventsAll events
28 Sep
Seminar “Dynamics of Persistent Epidemic and Optimal Control of Vaccination”
5 Oct
Lecture “Metal Catalysis in Chemoselective Peptide Macrocyclization”
4 Oct
Lecture “Multicomponent Synthesis of Macrocyclic and Stapled Peptides”
2 Oct
Lecture “Multicomponent Reactions in the Development of Peptide Pharmaceuticals”